Tales from the Alberta Triangle: The United States, China and the Evolving Dynamics of Canadian Energy Exports

Abstract

Canadian natural gas has been exported to the United States, in fits and starts, since the beginning of the 20th Century. Depending on whom you ask, the relationship today is either a testament to faith in open markets, or the folly of a short-sighted exporter selling its endowment to the most convenient (and expedient) bidder. But the dynamics are shifting. The development of shale gas resources in the U.S. has drastically reduced American dependence on foreign gas. Similar discoveries in Alberta and British Columbia have given Canadian producers and governments something new to ponder, and China’s ongoing thirst for energy has led to discussion of a pipeline and liquefaction capability on Canada’s Pacific coast. This paper seeks to evaluate these new dynamics, their effect on Canadian resource decisions, and their implications for the politico-economic relations among the three countries.