Academic Program Life Cycles: An Application of a Dynamic Growth Model

Abstract

The basic mixed-influence diffusion growth model was extended by including economic factors (GDP, Recruitment Expenditures) deemed potentially to influence enrollment demand for academic programs. The regression analysis of the dynamic model yielded better parameter estimates, including magnitude and timing of enrollment peaks. The dynamic model explained variations in the growth of academic programs better than the basic model, and its long-term predictions of enrollments were more accurate than the predictions of the basic model. Parameter estimates were theoretically correct as to their signs and magnitudes. In summary, the dynamic model showed considerable improvement over the basic growth model.