Growth Model for Academic Program Life Cycles: A Theoretical & Empirical Analysis

Abstract

Academic program life cycle concept states that each program’s life flows through several stages: development, introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. A mixed-influence diffusion growth model is fitted to enrollment data to analyze the factors determining progress of academic programs through their life cycles. The regression analysis yield reasonable parameter estimates, including magnitude of enrolment peaks and duration of stages and describes growth patterns of academic programs very well. The results indicate that key factors accounting for progress of academic programs through life cycle stages are external information and word-of-mouth communication. The model’s application for analyzing market dynamics and long-range forecasting is demonstrated.